Weekly

The validation digest

One email a week: every strategy that entered or exited the 11 gates, which gate retired it, and what the survivors taught us. No hype, no signals-for-sale — just the scoreboard, moving.

The brief is generated automatically from the scoreboard each week — read the latest asplain markdown, or see the most recent verdicts below.

What you'd have read most recently

ValidatedHyperliquid HLP VaultClears the descriptive hurdle: Sharpe 1.72, PF 9.96, −5.8% max drawdown — roughly 2× BTC's return at half the volatility and an eighth of the drawdown. Qualifies as a benchmark and satellite allocation, with explicit directional and smart-contract risk caveats.SurvivingVariance Risk Premium (SPY / QQQ)Passes 9 of 11 gates. Profit factor 1.74, Sharpe 0.86, 86% of months positive, placebo PASS, deflated-Sharpe 0.976. It fails only on max drawdown (−12.1%, just over the line) and leg concentration (51%). A real premium with a fat left tail — survives, pending tail management.SurvivingTurtle / Donchian BreakoutPasses 9 of 11 gates. Profit factor 1.61, Sharpe 0.90, placebo PASS, deflated-Sharpe 0.997. It fails only on max drawdown (−49%) and instrument concentration (43%). A genuine trend edge — it survives, pending a risk re-scope before any capital.In PaperThe Wheel on SPYOn paper it looks like it crushes SPY — 31% vs 15% CAGR at half the drawdown — but the entire edge lives in the flat-VIX premium assumption. Halve the modelled credit and it falls to 5.7% CAGR, below SPY. A real-but-fragile premium harvest: in paper-trading, no capital, pending a clean 90-day live forward test before any Approved verdict.In PaperFunding-Rate Harvest (Round 1)The program's first mechanical (not structural) failure. The funding premium is real and wildly significant — placebo 95th percentile 0.003, ~13%/yr gross. The literal rebalance rule fails 4/8 gates on whipsaw transaction-cost drag. A re-pre-registered hold-continuous rule is now in a fresh paper window.