Trend Breakout (v2)
NRA · Crabel NR7 + ATR Stop (v2)
NR7 breakout with ATR stop — v2
Pre-registered and currently in the gate battery — results published here, pass or fail.
- Category
- Volatility breakout
- Window
- In progress
- Instruments
- XAUUSD (gold)
- Timeframe
- Daily
- Tested
- 2026-06-25
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
The bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
It wagers that a Crabel narrow-range-7 day — the tightest range of the prior seven sessions — signals coiled, compressed volatility in gold that tends to release into a directional breakout the following day.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
After an NR7 day it arms breakout orders above and below that day's range; a touch beyond the boundary enters in that direction, position size scales to recent ATR, and an ATR-multiple stop defines the exit.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
The edge turns negative in choppy, rangebound gold where breakouts immediately reverse into the ATR stop, and in low-volatility regimes where compression never resolves into follow-through, leaving only whipsaw losses and cost drag.
Explainer compiled 2026-06-28 · opus-4.8
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Currently running
NR7 breakout with ATR stop — v2 is pre-registered and in the 11-gate battery now. The full scorecard, metrics, charts and verdict will appear here automatically the moment its validation run completes — pass or fail.
Status: QUEUED. We publish the failures too.
Frequently asked
Is Crabel NR7 + ATR Stop profitable in 2026?
It is currently running through the 11-gate battery; the verdict will be published on this page, pass or fail.
Has Crabel NR7 + ATR Stop been backtested honestly?
Yes — through The Validation Gauntlet, a pre-registered 11-gate framework (profit factor, deflated Sharpe, a random-permutation placebo, cost-stress and walk-forward) with the specification locked before any out-of-sample metric is computed.
Methodology: Independent research screen — the full 11-gate battery was not run; data and execution limits are stated in the report. Full reproducible report: backtests/nr7_atr_v2/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.