Volatility Premium (Tail-Managed)
VR2 · Variance Risk Premium — Tail-Managed v2
Variance risk premium — tail-managed v2
Pre-registered and currently in the gate battery — results published here, pass or fail.
- Category
- Volatility
- Window
- In progress
- Instruments
- SPY / QQQ options
- Timeframe
- Weekly
- Tested
- 2026-06-25
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
BackfillingThe bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Currently running
Variance risk premium — tail-managed v2 is pre-registered and in the 11-gate battery now. The full scorecard, metrics, charts and verdict will appear here automatically the moment its validation run completes — pass or fail.
Status: QUEUED. We publish the failures too.
Frequently asked
Is Variance Risk Premium — Tail-Managed v2 profitable in 2026?
It is currently running through the 11-gate battery; the verdict will be published on this page, pass or fail.
Has Variance Risk Premium — Tail-Managed v2 been backtested honestly?
Yes — through The Validation Gauntlet, a pre-registered 11-gate framework (profit factor, deflated Sharpe, a random-permutation placebo, cost-stress and walk-forward) with the specification locked before any out-of-sample metric is computed.
Methodology: Independent research screen — the full 11-gate battery was not run; data and execution limits are stated in the report. Full reproducible report: backtests/vrp_v2/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.