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Turtle Breakout (v2)

TR2 · Turtle / Donchian — Risk-Rescoped v2

Turtle/Donchian breakout — risk-rescoped v2

Pre-registered and currently in the gate battery — results published here, pass or fail.

Category
Trend
Window
In progress
Instruments
Diversified futures-style basket
Timeframe
Daily
Tested
2026-06-25

Pending validation

A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.

See what the gates require →
Awaiting testProfit factor
Awaiting testSharpe
Awaiting testMax drawdown
Awaiting testWin rate
Awaiting testTrades
Not runGates passed
Not runPlacebo

How it works

Backfilling
  1. The bet

    What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.

    Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.

  2. How it decides

    What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.

    Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.

  3. How it can break

    The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.

    Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.

Currently running

Turtle/Donchian breakout — risk-rescoped v2 is pre-registered and in the 11-gate battery now. The full scorecard, metrics, charts and verdict will appear here automatically the moment its validation run completes — pass or fail.

Status: QUEUED. We publish the failures too.

Frequently asked

Is Turtle / Donchian — Risk-Rescoped v2 profitable in 2026?

It is currently running through the 11-gate battery; the verdict will be published on this page, pass or fail.

Has Turtle / Donchian — Risk-Rescoped v2 been backtested honestly?

Yes — through The Validation Gauntlet, a pre-registered 11-gate framework (profit factor, deflated Sharpe, a random-permutation placebo, cost-stress and walk-forward) with the specification locked before any out-of-sample metric is computed.

Methodology: Independent research screen — the full 11-gate battery was not run; data and execution limits are stated in the report. Full reproducible report: backtests/turtle_v2/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.