Expert Pullback Basket (Public-Rule Synthesis)
Multi-model FX trend-pullback basket
Incomplete and negative: only four of seven pairs and nine holdout trades; no evidence supports deployment.
- Category
- Trend
- Window
- Locked holdout: 2024-01-01–2026-06-19
- Instruments
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY (3 intended pairs unavailable)
- Timeframe
- D1 from real M5 bars
- Tested
- 2026-07-19
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
The bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
Combining several public trend-continuation patterns may diversify signal timing while portfolio limits contain correlated USD exposure.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
The basket combines the Bollinger continuation, Grimes-style pullback, and Raschke-style ADX/EMA proxy with position and USD-bias caps.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
Sparse overlap can leave too few trades, and combining individually weak signals does not create an edge.
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Result
The combined model generated only 9 locked-holdout trades, with PF 0.012 and Sharpe -1.249. The intended seven-pair test was impossible because NZDUSD, USDCHF, and USDCAD data were not present. The honest state is INCONCLUSIVE with strongly negative observed evidence.
This basket is a synthesis of public educational patterns plus original portfolio rules. It is not a copy or reconstruction of any company’s proprietary system.
Evidence boundary
No MT4 compiler or Strategy Tester evidence exists locally. Historical variable spread, swap, slippage, and tick order are missing. The EA remains demo-only and must not be deployed from these results.
Frequently asked
Why is the basket not rejected despite PF 0.012?
Only nine locked-holdout trades occurred and three intended currency pairs were unavailable. The observed evidence is severely negative but too incomplete for a definitive verdict.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 6-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/expert_pullback_public_models/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.