Grimes-Style Trend Pullback (Public-Rule Model)
Impulse, pullback, and continuation breakout
Inconclusive but negative: the locked sample is too small for rejection, and it produced no positive evidence.
- Category
- Trend
- Window
- Locked holdout: 2024-01-01–2026-06-19
- Instruments
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY
- Timeframe
- D1 from real M5 bars
- Tested
- 2026-07-19
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
The bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
After a strong trend impulse, a controlled pullback may offer favorable entry when price resumes through the prior bar.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
This clean-room proxy identifies an impulse, waits for a pullback toward an average without deeper trend failure, and enters on resumption.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
Sparse signals make inference weak, while false resumptions and costs can overwhelm the few winners.
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Result
The model recorded only 18 locked-holdout trades, too few for a firm verdict. Those trades were poor—PF 0.099, Sharpe -1.630, and a 16.7% win rate—so the record is explicitly INCONCLUSIVE with negative evidence, not promising or validated.
Public material supports the impulse, pullback, and prior-bar resumption structure. It does not prescribe this implementation’s EMA set, daily timeframe, exact lookback, or ATR trail. Those are disclosed clean-room choices.
Evidence boundary
The bid-only Python replication lacks broker-quality costs and MT4 tester execution. Four of seven intended basket pairs were available. The EA is demo-only and uncompiled.
Frequently asked
Does this reproduce a proprietary Adam Grimes system?
No. It is an independent operationalization of public educational concepts; unspecified parameters and exits are original research choices.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 6-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/expert_pullback_public_models/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.