London Macro-Filtered FX Scalp
London-open breakout and pullback
Rejected at the pre-filter screen — only 206 EURUSD trades (85 holdout) versus the frozen 300/100 requirement, and PF was 0.73 after modeled retail costs. Macro exclusions can only reduce the sample.
- Category
- Forex
- Window
- 2018-01 → 2026-06
- Instruments
- EURUSD; GBPUSD replication
- Timeframe
- 5-minute
- Tested
- 2026-07
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
BackfillingThe bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Verdict: rejected at the early-stop screen
This was the proposed “daily” forex scalp: trade an orderly London opening-range break and pullback only when it agrees with the prior-day trend, then skip major ECB and US macro-announcement sessions. It does not work under the frozen rules.
The unfiltered EURUSD screen produced 206 trades, a 42.7% win rate, 0.73 profit factor, and -5.09% at 0.25% risk per trade. The locked 2023–2026 holdout had only 85 trades and remained below break-even at PF 0.94. GBPUSD replication also lost, with PF 0.79 overall.
| Metric | EURUSD overall | EURUSD holdout | GBPUSD overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 206 | 85 | 233 |
| Win rate | 42.7% | 48.2% | 44.6% |
| Profit factor | 0.725 | 0.943 | 0.793 |
| Net return | -5.09% | -0.37% | -4.20% |
| Max drawdown | 5.30% | 2.08% | 5.39% |
Why the macro filter cannot rescue it
The preregistration required 300 EURUSD trades overall and 100 in the holdout. The candidate missed both thresholds before excluding ECB, FOMC, Employment Situation, and CPI days. Those exclusions can only remove trades. The strategy is therefore rejected without spending more degrees of freedom on a result that can no longer pass all gates.
Evidence boundary
The screen used public HistData one-minute bid bars resampled to five minutes. Ask prices were modeled using a 0.8-pip EURUSD spread and 1.0-pip GBPUSD spread, plus 0.10 pip adverse slippage per side. At 0.50 pip slippage, profit factors fell to 0.64 and 0.69. These are not broker-specific fills, but the evidence is enough for the sample-size early stop and consistent economic rejection.
This result is published because a useful strategy catalog needs credible failed tests, not only winners. Do not trade this rule with real money.
Frequently asked
Does this London-open EURUSD scalping strategy work?
No. In the 2018–2026 early-stop test it produced a 0.73 profit factor and only 206 trades. It failed the pre-registered sample requirement before macro exclusions.
Why was the strategy stopped before applying the news calendar?
The frozen rule required at least 300 overall and 100 holdout trades. The unfiltered screen had only 206 and 85; skipping ECB, FOMC, NFP, and CPI days can only reduce both counts, so validation was mathematically impossible.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 11-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/london_macro_scalp/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.