London Overextension Mean Reversion
Asian-range false-break fade
Rejected — the apparent EURUSD PF of 1.46 came from only five trades in 8½ years, versus the frozen 300-trade requirement. GBPUSD replication lost with PF 0.51.
- Category
- Forex
- Window
- 2018-01 → 2026-06
- Instruments
- EURUSD; GBPUSD replication
- Timeframe
- 5-minute
- Tested
- 2026-07
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
BackfillingThe bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
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How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
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Market context
Live chart
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Verdict: rejected
This strategy faded London-morning breaks beyond the completed Asian range when the daily market was neutral. It waited for price to close back inside the range, then targeted the Asian midpoint with a fixed volatility stop.
EURUSD produced a superficially attractive 1.46 profit factor and 60% win rate, but those figures came from five trades in 8½ years. Three were in the locked holdout. The frozen requirements were 300 and 100. GBPUSD replication produced four trades and lost money at PF 0.51.
| Metric | EURUSD | GBPUSD replication |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 5 | 4 |
| Win rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Profit factor | 1.462 | 0.513 |
| Sharpe | 0.138 | -0.225 |
| Net return | +0.23% | -0.26% |
| Max drawdown | 0.25% | 0.50% |
The evidence does not support deployment, daily-income claims, or further tuning on this holdout. The rule is too selective, and its replication failed.
Frequently asked
Does fading the Asian range during London work?
Not under this frozen rule. It generated only five EURUSD trades in 8½ years, far below the 300-trade validation requirement.
Why reject a strategy with a 1.46 profit factor?
Profit factor is unstable with five observations, and the independent GBPUSD replication lost money. A positive tiny sample is not evidence of a tradable edge.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 11-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/london_mean_reversion/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.