NFL Rested Home Underdog ATS
Rest-advantaged home-underdog spread value
Inconclusive and negative — PF 0.805 across only 123 bets, below the frozen 250-bet prerequisite. Holdout PF was 0.931; this exact rule does not advance.
- Category
- Sports betting
- Window
- 1999-09-26 → 2025-12-14
- Instruments
- NFL regular-season point spreads
- Timeframe
- Pre-game closing spread
- Tested
- 2025-12-14
Measured equity history
Recorded directly from the chronological test ledger.
Shown in the backtest's native equity or cumulative P&L units. It is not scaled to an investment amount because the published artifact does not provide a defensible capital denominator.
How it works
BackfillingThe bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
Plain-English explainer is backfilling — check back tomorrow. We publish the explanation only once it's written and reviewed, never auto-filled.
Gate scorecard — 1 / 6
auto-imported from results.json| # | Gate | Result | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Minimum sample ≥250 bets | 123 bets | ✗ |
| 02 | Profit factor ≥1.05 | PF 0.805 | ✗ |
| 03 | Max drawdown no worse than -20% | max DD -17.8% | ✓ |
| 04 | Real PF beats permutation p95 | real PF 0.805 vs permutation p95 0.815 | ✗ |
| 05 | Holdout profit factor ≥1.00 | holdout PF 0.931 | ✗ |
| 06 | Holdout sample ≥75 bets | 38 holdout bets | ✗ |
VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE
Adding a two-day rest advantage reduced the sample to only 123 bets, below the frozen 250-bet minimum. The observed profit factor was 0.805, with holdout profit factor 0.931.
The result is economically negative and cleared only 1 of 6 gates, but the pre-registered disposition is inconclusive because the sample prerequisite failed. We will not describe a small, losing sample as proof that every rest-based NFL angle is impossible; it does reject this exact rule as a deployment candidate.
No post-hoc threshold changes were evaluated.
Frequently asked
Is NFL Rested Home Underdog ATS profitable in 2026?
In this pre-registered backtest (1999-09-26 → 2025-12-14), NFL Rested Home Underdog ATS returned a profit factor of 0.80 and passed 1/6 validation gates (placebo N/A). Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE. Every result is published, pass or fail.
Has NFL Rested Home Underdog ATS been backtested honestly?
Yes — through 6 pre-registered evidence gates appropriate to the available dataset, with the specification locked before any out-of-sample metric is computed.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 6-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/nfl_rested_home_underdog/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.