Raschke-Style ADX/EMA Pullback (Public-Rule Model)
Strong-trend first-pullback continuation proxy
Inconclusive and negative: insufficient holdout trades, PF below one, and bootstrap uncertainty crosses zero.
- Category
- Trend
- Window
- Locked holdout: 2024-01-01–2026-06-19
- Instruments
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY
- Timeframe
- D1 from real M5 bars
- Tested
- 2026-07-19
Pending validation
A scaled equity curve appears here once this strategy clears the data needed to compute one honestly. We don't show a curve we can't stand behind.
See what the gates require →How it works
The bet
What market behavior this strategy is wagering on.
The first pullback to a short moving average after trend strength becomes elevated may resume toward a new extreme.
How it decides
What makes it enter, size, and exit a position.
This clean-room proxy requires strong ADX and directional strength, an EMA20 pullback, and a prior-bar breakout trigger.
How it can break
The regimes and failure modes that turn the edge negative.
ADX can remain elevated after a move is mature, and an operational proxy may not isolate the true first pullback precisely.
Market context
Live chart
Chart powered by TradingView. Live prices can differ from the point-in-time dataset used in the published test.
Result
Only 26 trades occurred in the locked holdout. PF was 0.621, Sharpe -0.334, and the block-bootstrap Sharpe interval crossed zero (-1.314 to 0.628). That is insufficient for rejection but supplies no positive evidence.
The public “Holy Grail” concept specifies ADX(14) above 30 and the first retracement to EMA20. This implementation adds a directional filter, breakout trigger, and ATR risk management, and only approximates “first retracement.” It must not be presented as a proprietary or exact Raschke system.
Evidence boundary
This is a four-pair bid-data replication, not an MT4 Strategy Tester result. The demo EA has not been compiled locally.
Frequently asked
Is this Linda Raschke proprietary code?
No. It is independent clean-room code based on public educational rules, with original choices where a mechanical specification was absent.
Methodology: 11-gate validation — pre-registered spec, 6-gate battery, real market data. Full reproducible report: backtests/expert_pullback_public_models/REPORT.md in the source repository.Author: Validated Research Team (Methodology v1.0 — 11-gate validation). Backtests are not investment advice.